The decision on Cyprus has been delayed until Monday and may be delayed further. The principle that depositors' money has to be appropriated seems to be off the table and Cyprus is looking hard for a viable alternative. Cyprus may well not be a market mover over the next few weeks if an alternative solution can be found.
This toxic precedent has been set however even in the failed attempt, and this is likely to have a strong effect over the next couple of years as bank deposits leave the EU for friendlier climes. This also fits in with my view of bonds, where I think a major decline over the next couple of years is just getting started. I'll be explaining my technical reasons for this view another day, but for now I think an H&S is forming on TLT with the next major downside target in the 106.5 area as the H&S neckline. I have sketched a possible path for this on the TLT chart below: